2026-03-18
On March 25-26, 2026, the 5th Stainless Steel Supply and Demand Conference 2026, organized by Shanghai Xinliang Stainless Steel Pipe Industry Co., Ltd., was successfully held at the InterContinental Wuxi Junlai Hotel.
The theme of the conference was:“Strengthening fundamentals, exploring new opportunities, integrating the supply chain and growing together.” The event aimed to create a high-level platform for industry dialogue, analyze new demand trends from end consumers, stimulate the innovative potential of enterprises and jointly identify ways for high-quality development of the stainless steel industry.
On the afternoon of March 26, an analyst in the stainless steel division of Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce Co., Ltd. Ms. Sun Liqing made a presentation on the topic “Imbalance and restructuring - prospects for the structure of supply and demand, as well as price trends in the global and Chinese stainless steel market.” In her presentation, she provided a comprehensive analysis of the stainless steel market in 2026 across five key areas: macroeconomic changes, resource constraints, trade barriers, industry restructuring and pricing trends.
Sun Liqing noted that the global market has entered a new stage of imbalance, characterized by the dominant influence of geopolitics, political factors and rising costs. Macroeconomic factors become a key element in price formation.
Indonesia's nickel ore mining quotas have been significantly reduced, with the slow pace of permit approvals and the impact of Ramadan further adding to supply tensions. At the same time, there is an increase in nickel ore prices in the Philippines, which provides strong support to the commodity market.
Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to a decline in Chinese stainless steel exports to the region, and disruptions in shipping have contributed to rising logistics costs. The strengthening US dollar and increasing demand for defensive assets are putting pressure on base metal prices and increasing market volatility.
Trade barriers in overseas markets continue to increase, placing additional pressure on the export environment. The introduction of a carbon tax in the European Union, the active use of anti-dumping measures in Europe and the United States, as well as increased import duties on Chinese stainless steel from India, Brazil, South Korea and a number of other countries significantly complicate export activities.
Within China, the export license system has been fully implemented, and the industry has entered a phase of increasing sales volumes through lower prices. Exports in the first quarter are forecast to decline year-on-year.
China occupies a leading position in the world in terms of production and consumption of stainless steel, exerting a decisive influence on the global market.
The industry is experiencing simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the market structure is becoming increasingly differentiated. Demand remains stable from high-tech manufacturing and the new energy sector, while the recovery of traditional industries is occurring at a slower pace. The interconnection between the futures and spot markets is increasing, leading to increased price volatility. The most confident dynamics are demonstrated by the products of the 300 series, significantly ahead of other groups of stainless steels.
According to the expert, the industry is at the stage of simultaneous impact of three key factors: high costs, government policy and demand. High commodity prices provide strong support to the market, the impact of export and environmental restrictions is gradually weakening, and domestic demand is beginning to recover thanks to measures to stimulate economic growth. As a result, the industry is entering a period of regulatory restructuring and structural optimization.
Finally, Sun Liqing presented a forecast for 2026. In her opinion, the stainless steel market will develop primarily in a recovery correction mode with price fluctuations.
In the short term, strong cost support will help keep prices relatively high, but the impact of export factors and macroeconomic sentiment may cause corrective pullbacks.
In the medium term, as demand recovers and the export structure is optimized, a gradual increase in the price level is expected.
The basic logic of the market throughout the year will be that cost determines the floor of prices, while demand and exports will determine the potential for further growth.
